The October Surprise
/In all this frenzied run-up to the presidential election – the anticipation and arguing about who will win and who may lose the White House in November – we should take care to give a thought, first, to October.
In that last full month before the big election, strange things have happened in our American presidential history. Some became famous, in fact, and it even has a name: It is called “The October Surprise.”
It’s almost an institution. In 2016 the Smithsonian Magazine even wrote about the phenomenon, how it happens, and why it has mattered. Reagan did it to Carter. Clinton did it to Bush. Even Jefferson did it to Adams. Read it here: https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/strange-history-october-surprise-180960741/
Here then is the big question of 2020: What will the surprise be this October?
Something military? Or diplomatic, or economic? Maybe we will learn, on Halloween morning, about “Peace in our Time” as they might say?
Or maybe, for a change of pace in our time, even a piece of news that’s broadly calming and reassuring? Maybe, at last, a coronavirus vaccine? That would be nice. (Late, but nice.)
More likely, though, it will be something shocking or scary. Like another of those “invading hordes” on the way? (Wait, that’s been done.)
Or, you have to ask yourself: In 2020 will anyone even notice another surprise? With an administration so given to reversals and surprises on a daily basis, will we will detect one more?
More likely, it will be a real whopper. We will read, on some morning in October, and watch on the network news that evening something scary that’s designed to “wag the dog” - that is, meant sway a big election. And don’t bet some guys aren’t thinking it up this very morning.
Here’s how it works: It’s a scheduled late hit. It’s a planned sucker-punch that’s calculated to land so late its victim (the opposing candidate and his people) have no time, practically speaking, to respond.
Does that strike you as fair? Are you kidding me? In politics, anything goes.
The smartest thing for us voters to do is to brace ourselves ahead of such an event. And then let even the biggest shocker you can imagine roll off you like so much water off a duck’s back.
Let’s all resolve, right now, not to be surprised at all.
© Keel Hunt, 2020
